According to a report from the state’s infrastructure advisory body, boosting urban housing density in Victoria is projected to result in a more content population and substantial financial benefits by 2056, as opposed to spreading out growth across the state.

A recent report from Infrastructure Victoria highlights the advantages for Victorians of living in closer proximity to jobs, services, and infrastructure in urban and regional areas. The study outlines five urban development scenarios, one of which involves a ‘compact city’ with high-density housing and more residents living in townhouses or apartments in central Melbourne.

Additional scenarios involve the ‘dispersed city’ with more detached homes, the ‘consolidated city’ with more medium-density homes, the ‘network of cities’ with more homes in regional centres, and the ‘distributed state’ with more homes in regional towns and rural areas.

“The results of our scenario modelling tell us that more compact cities perform better on many indicators,” the report concludes.

Benefits of being compact

According to the report, the government would need to allocate approximately $41 billion for infrastructure development in a spread-out city by 2056. This translates to an additional $59,000 per new home compared to a more densely populated city.

In a scenario where the city is spread out, there would be an additional 154,000 cars on the roads and an increase of 17.3 million metric tonnes of emissions in the next thirty years. Victoria is projected to reach a population of 11 million in the next 30 years, which is 4.5 million more than in 2022. Current trends indicate that 50% of metropolitan growth is happening in growth areas, with a higher percentage in regional cities.

Melbourne is described as a low-density city by Infrastructure Victoria, with 1,600 people per square kilometre, in contrast to Paris (3,900 km2) and Los Angeles (2,200 per km2). According to Dr. Jonathan Spear, CEO of Infrastructure Victoria, compact cities provide businesses with improved chances to recruit employees and expand their customer base and markets.

“Victorians would be up to $43 billion better off by 2056 with more compact cities compared to growth being dispersed across the state,” he says.

“The current pathway of growth is more people living away from existing infrastructure in new suburbs on the urban fringes of our cities.

“The evidence shows that this delivers worse quality of life and opportunities for Victorians,” he said.

In addition to the economic advantages, boosting urban density will also create more space for agriculture and wildlife, he explains.

Recommendations for reform

The report presents five recommendations, proposing new strategies for Victoria to support growth in established areas, establish urban growth boundaries for regional cities, and set housing targets for established areas of Victorian cities.

The proposal includes advocating for infrastructure contribution reform, eliminating certain taxes and subsidies that promote scattered development, and adjusting planning regulations to encourage denser urban areas within the state.

According to Dr. Spear, the residents will face reduced job opportunities, and businesses will be negatively impacted if steps are not taken to align the structure of Victorian cities with the suggestions outlined in the report.

“The Victorian Government, working with local governments and communities, can influence the shape of our cities,” he said.

Justin Lance Marcel Lavadia

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Justin Lavadia is a content producer and editor at Public Spectrum with a diverse writing background spanning various niches and formats. With a wealth of experience, he brings clarity and concise communication to digital content. His expertise lies in crafting engaging content and delivering impactful narratives that resonate with readers.

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