A new forecasting tool that makes use of innovative climate modelling has been invested upon by the New Zealand Government to help farmers and growers prepare for dry conditions.

Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor stated that the new tool will provide daily drought forecasts out to 35 days with future plans for the tool to explore drought predictions up to six months ahead. 

The project is said to cost $200,000 and will be jointly funded through the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). 

NIWA currently provides seasonal climate outlooks each month that look three months ahead. However, their outlooks are not drought specific. 

“We are harnessing the latest in climate and data science to put information into the hands of the people who can make the best use of it,” Minister O’Connor said. 

“Knowing well in advance when dry conditions are heading your way means you can cut your cloth accordingly at critical times on-farm. Having early warning can help determine stocking levels, water storage and feed management options.” 

Building upon a weather model released by the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NIWA scientists used state-of-the-art data-driven techniques to make predictions more precise and more accurate for New Zealand.

“Droughts are a part of farming, but when they extend for many months or affect large swathes of the country, they can have a major impact on rural communities,” Minister O’Connor said. 

The new forecasting tool will accompany the New Zealand Drought Index, which was developed by NIWA in conjunction with MPI and launched in 2017. It is used to determine the current status of drought across the country and measures the duration and intensity of recent dryness. 

Minister O’Connor said that the NZ Government has responded with about $20 million of funding to help rural communities thanks to a large-scale drought adverse event classification.

“With climate change, severe weather events are both more frequent and intense. So, it’s important we help farmers and growers get their businesses ready for future climate conditions,” he said. 

Farmers and growers, representatives from local and central government, advisors and industry bodies will be consulted on the development of the forecasting tool, allowing it to benefit from the input of a wide range of end-users. The tool is expected to be available by the end of 2023.  

“Improved forecasting will alleviate some of the financial and mental burdens that drought puts on farmers and growers. It will also make our primary industries more resilient, productive and sustainable,” Minister O’Connor said.  

Source: Inside Government NZ

Eliza Sayon

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Eliza is a content producer and editor at Public Spectrum. She is an experienced writer on topics related to the government and to the public, as well as stories that uplift and improve the community.

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