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Maven Data founder accurately predicts election results from online data

Eliza Sayon May 25, 2022

2 min read

At least eight new independent MPs are set to enter parliament following the results of the federal election, surprising everyone except an analyst who says online data accurately predicted the result.

Data analyst and ‘election whisperer’ Elisa Choy expressed that the results of the high-profile, mostly female independent candidates winning the traditionally Liberal-held seats were hidden in plain sight online.

“Data doesn’t lie,” Ms Choy said.

For over 18 months, Ms Choy and her team at Maven Data used artificial intelligence to predict macro trends of the election.

Her data predicted independents would gain 13 seats, the Liberal-National coalition would suffer a net loss of 19 seats and Labor would form a minority or slim majority government with at least 76 seats.

And, as of Tuesday afternoon, projections by the Australian Electoral Commission showed that at least 10 independents will sit on the crossbench of the 47th parliament.

While the Coalition is expected to have 60 seats, losing 17 seats from the 2019 election, Labor is close to securing the 76 parliamentary seats it needs to become the majority.

The Maven Data team analysed the data that is publicly available online, such as websites, blogs and social media, to closely predict the election result.

By analysing millions of behavioural interactions online, Ms Choy was able to see a story forming in each individual seat.

“My reporting predictions are founded on the comprehensive view of sentiment … there was extremely negative sentiment towards Scott Morrison,” she said.

“It’s actually not about ‘teal independents’ but about the story of this election which was; what does democracy mean and what does it mean for communities to be represented in federal parliament.”

Ms Choy explained that the seat of Fowler, traditionally seen as a safe Labor seat but lost to independent candidate Dai Le, was the case study showcasing that story.

Online data showed people were disillusioned with the major parties and independents provided an alternative.

“It’s no coincidence all the independents are female,” Ms Choy said.

“Their key messages around integrity (in government), climate change, and gender equality resonated.”

With AAP

Eliza Sayon

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Eliza is a content producer and editor at Public Spectrum. She is an experienced writer on topics related to the government and to the public, as well as stories that uplift and improve the community.